Republican Polling Climbs

Donald J. Trump at CPAC 2017. Photo by Michael Vadon

Gallup reported yesterday that the Republican favorability rating is the highest it’s been in seven years, at 45%.  It’s a significant spike upward over a week’s time.  It’s one percent higher than the Democrats, whose favorability is at 44%.

This has made some Republican-leaning organizations and pundits very relieved, if not actively happy. 

The approval of Trump as President, however, does not match that rating.  He polled at 40%, only 1% higher than the average across his Presidency.  It is the lowest approval rating for September, second year of a Presidency, since modern polling has been performed.

Moreover, the current aggregate poll data at RealClearPolitics displays a swath of unfavorable polling for Republicans.  Their current listing of “No Toss Up” Senate breakdown shows a loss for Republicans to a balanced 50/50 split, which means that the Republicans are at risk of losing the Senate during a time when the electoral map is incredibly favorable to them.

Their numbers for the House show the Democrats likely winners in 206 races, the Republicans in 189.  With 40 toss-up seats, the current odds greatly favor the Democrats gaining the House by getting 218 seats.  538 currently gives the Democrats just over an 80% chance to win.

538 is a Democrat-friendly site, but the accuracy of their predictions is their stock in trade.  They have a monetary incentive toward reasoned speculation.

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About AlienMotives 1690 Articles
Ex-Navy Reactor Operator turned bookseller. Father of an amazing girl and husband to an amazing wife. Tired of willful political blindness, but never tired of politics. Hopeful for the future.