Gallup reported yesterday that the Republican favorability rating is the highest it’s been in seven years, at 45%. It’s a significant spike upward over a week’s time. It’s one percent higher than the Democrats, whose favorability is at 44%.
This has made some Republican-leaning organizations and pundits very relieved, if not actively happy.
The approval of Trump as President, however, does not match that rating. He polled at 40%, only 1% higher than the average across his Presidency. It is the lowest approval rating for September, second year of a Presidency, since modern polling has been performed.
Moreover, the current aggregate poll data at RealClearPolitics displays a swath of unfavorable polling for Republicans. Their current listing of “No Toss Up” Senate breakdown shows a loss for Republicans to a balanced 50/50 split, which means that the Republicans are at risk of losing the Senate during a time when the electoral map is incredibly favorable to them.
Their numbers for the House show the Democrats likely winners in 206 races, the Republicans in 189. With 40 toss-up seats, the current odds greatly favor the Democrats gaining the House by getting 218 seats. 538 currently gives the Democrats just over an 80% chance to win.
538 is a Democrat-friendly site, but the accuracy of their predictions is their stock in trade. They have a monetary incentive toward reasoned speculation.
