Polls are showing progress for Republicans in key states. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average for Senate, with no toss-ups, has moved from an even split to 51-49 in the favor of Republicans following the movement of Tennessee from leaning Democrat to leaning Republican after a Fox News poll showed a five point lead for Marcia Blackburn.
The same Fox poll showed a growth in Republican enthusiasm not only in Tennessee but in four other key states. This result mirrors the result seen in a new Marist poll co-sponsored by NPR/PBS, where they show that the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans has dissipated.
A prominent pair of polls about what is arguably the most nationally visible midterm race, Cruz vs. Beto, have shown dramatic differences. The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Cruz with his largest lead of the race, 9 points. The polling for that cycle ended on September 17th and the results were announced on Tuesday. The most recent poll of the race, from Ipsos/Reuters, shows Beto winning by 2 points.
The House races have not seen much movement on RCP in recent days, but the polling analysis at 538 have shifted the likelihood of Democrats winning the House down from just over 80% to just over 75%.
Third parties and independent candidates are not currently making significant inroads throughout the country, despite 40% or more of the country consistently rejecting both parties.