Well, here it is, folks, what is likely to be the final day for the second impeachment trial of Donald Trump. Starting at 10 AM Eastern, we will be provided closing arguments by House managers and Trump’s defense lawyers, followed by a vote by the full Senate around 3 PM.
The overwhelming expectations are that Trump will not be convicted; seventeen Republicans and all Democrats would need to vote for conviction for that to happen. There are indications that a few Republicans who voted against the impeachment trial being allowed to proceed might decide that the evidence of Trump’s abuses are so overwhelming that they cannot be abided, but it seems unlikely that nine Republican Senators would find against their former leader, much less double that amount.
Overwhelmingly, this is a political calculation for the Senators. I expect that few of those present believe that Trump was anything but the primary galvanizing force behind the attempted coup. They know he is guilty. But they also realize that he’s likely to spend the next few years embroiled in various lawsuits and will therefore be highly unlikely to successfully run for re-election… and that’s setting aside the matter of his corpulence and his steady public mental degradation.
So, this has become political theater. That makes it no less important, to watch and see which Senators treat their oaths to the Constitution seriously and which do not. The final vote for the first impeachment drew only one Republican Senator, Mitt Romney, who was willing to stand against blatant abuse of authority by the President. We shall see how many cross over today.