The House of Representatives has cancelled its session today in anticipation of a potential attack. The Senate remains in session with heightened security. They are not alone.
Across the country, state authorities are increasing security in response to warnings about heightened chatter of terrorist activity. In this case, the terrorists are Americans. QAnon believers and their allies in nationalist and white supremacist groups have selected March 4 as a key date for their conspiracy theory.
Even as they believe they are patriots for ignoring the Constitution and America’s founding arguments, many of them still revere lines plucked from history and imagine themselves to be scholars. In this case, they have seized upon the fact that March 4 was the traditional inauguration date prior to the adoption of the 20th Amendment.
Unlike January 6, there is no rally to provide cover for the conspirators. There is no sitting President to instigate an attack over social media. Most importantly, law enforcement is taking the notion of a direct attack by domestic terrorists very seriously.
Those are the facts. This is my analysis.
There are not going to be any large attacks on the Capitol – or any state capitol – today. While the “March 4” lunatics absolutely exist, they constitute a very small percentage of the population. A much greater percentage, to my considerable distress, remain open to the idea. These will be the parents and the grandparents who keep an ear on OANN or their favorite radio talk station all day today, waiting to see if there is news of President Trump being inaugurated so they can crow at their disbelieving relatives. They don’t believe it will happen, but they remain delusional.
The fact that the Republican punditry and politicians aren’t widely mocking the Democrats as going overboard on security speaks volumes. They are fully aware of what they have wrought, and they recognize the absolute possibility of local, targeted attacks by QAnon and their ilk. They don’t want to be the person on record as denouncing precautions minutes before a life-taking bomb goes off near the Arizona Governor’s mansion. They will commence with their derision tomorrow, pretending that they believed there was never a reason for concern. It’s fundamentally dishonest, and representative of where they are as people and politicians.
Meanwhile, hyperbole is going to be used to magnify the appearance of belief in the alternate inauguration date. It’s worth noting that even among the most rabidly insane of the Trump cult, the overwhelming majority of them believe that the inauguration was already legally held. They may gripe about imaginary election theft orchestrated by men in black and secret evidence that will some day be revealed, but their mockery of Biden during CPAC was often framed in how much worse the country has fared since inauguration day.
If the 2021 CPAC attendees aren’t buying into the March 4 inauguration theory, it’s not a prominent belief among the cultists.
The problems we face with misinformation aren’t going to be fixed with the introduction of more falsehoods and inaccuracies. They already buy into enough craziness to be rebutted. Framing the argument as if every Trumpist is a March 4 conspiracy believer isn’t going to help.