It’s Thursday…
President Shitshow’s public schedule for…
| Friday, July 4 2025 |
| 12:50 AM The President arrives the White House The White House Out-of-Town Travel Pool |
| 7:30 AM In-Town Pool Call Time In-Town Pool |
| 5:00 PM The President and FIRST LADY participate in the Military Family Picnic South Lawn Pre-Credentialed Media |
| 8:30 PM Out-of-Town Travel Pool Call Time Out-of-Town Travel Pool |
The bill limps toward passage this afternoon. President All About Me will sign it Friday—ideally with cannons, confetti, and someone live-tweeting his greatness.
NEW — I am now told that this signing ceremony will be at 5 p.m. tomorrow.
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) July 3, 2025
Seems like it's a moving target https://t.co/JJu017sA6w
Currently, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries is essentially filibustering the bill to delay the vote giving people more time to call their Rep’s., to tell them to vote “no” on this job killing, medicaid slashing, and overall bad bill.
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) has been speaking for over 5 hours. Watch LIVE on C-SPAN https://t.co/5vtyKu6Kkk
— CSPAN (@cspan) July 3, 2025
To date, the longest floor speech in the U.S. House was given by then-Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (8 hrs. and 32 min.) from November 18-19, 2021.… pic.twitter.com/mFsbukFDf3
Show more =’s To date, the longest floor speech in the U.S. House was given by then-Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (8 hrs. and 32 min.) from November 18-19, 2021. https://c-span.org/program/us-house-of-representatives/house-session-part-2/605484 Prior to McCarthy’s remarks, the record was held by then-Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (8 hrs. and 7 min) on February 7, 2018. https://c-span.org/clip/us-house-of-representatives/rep-pelosi-delivers-longest-house-speech-since-1909/4713575
In Economic News.
We are a day early when we pretend all good things regarding the economy is the current President’s doing. And the bad things are former President Joe Biden’s fault.
BLS.gov says that non-total farm payroll added 147,000 new jobs for the month of June.
I’m gonna use two economists today; one teaches economics, the other is an economics reporter.
The Economics Professor:
This month's payrolls growth was +147k, which was modestly stronger than expectations. Last month was revised up +5k to +144k, and April was revised up +11k to +158k.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) July 3, 2025
It's a remarkably consistent performance, with job growth averaging a robust +150k over the past three months.
Reassuringly, the household survey also shows useful employment growth, with the number of people employed growing by +93k. (Equally, it suggested that employment fell a worrying -696k the prior month.)
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) July 3, 2025
The source of these job gains looks worrying:
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) July 3, 2025
State govt +47k (mainly teachers)
Local govt +23k
Healthcare +39k
Social assistance +19k
Point is, nearly all of this month's job growth is outside the market sector.
And manufacturing employment is still shrinking: -7k manufacturing jobs were lost this month, after -7k last month. The tariffs are… [complete this sentence according to your ideology: not working / more necessary than ever]
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) July 3, 2025
The Economics Reporter aka Charts Guy:
OK, charts thread! Starting with the headlines: Job growth was solid and unemployment fell. Lots more to dig into, but don't lose sight of the big picture. #jobsday https://t.co/VhRT8vsWWv pic.twitter.com/mr4P5faead
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) July 3, 2025
Federal government employment fell by 7k and is down 69k since January. That doesn't reflect people who are on paid admin. leave — expect a bigger drop in the fall.
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) July 3, 2025
State & local government employment rose, mostly in education. I don't have a ready explanation for that. pic.twitter.com/xjjJsnzX72
Turning to the household survey, the labor force shrank in June, but the participation and employment rates were both up for prime-age workers (25-54). Leaving aside monthly noise, both have been more or less flat for more than two years now. pic.twitter.com/fDOY5awLR2
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) July 3, 2025
Long-term unemployment rose in June and has been edging up. But the average duration of unemployment hasn't really moved much. pic.twitter.com/CoP4LR8EcJ
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) July 3, 2025
Only 34.2 percent of teens (ages 16-19) were employed in June, the lowest (outside the pandemic) since 2016. Read @onlykailyn's story on the decline in summer jobs for teens.https://t.co/zQbeKHBARf pic.twitter.com/3Ua4nJPw5a
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) July 3, 2025
The biggest question asked today and most jobs reports days are can the data be “trusted”.
The short answer is for now.
The longer answer is it’s just data being collected and put into report form, that’s why annually they offer a huge report that talks about all the data that has been collected over a period of time.
And no, the divergence between ADP and BLS figures is neither new nor surprising. The two have very little correlation on a month-to-month basis, and never have.
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) July 3, 2025
His opinion piece gift link:
It’s a question I get all the time — on social media, in comments on my stories, in conversations with friends and colleagues. That skepticism has only intensified in recent days, since the Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed that it was cutting back collection of price data that feeds into the Consumer Price Index.
Here’s my answer: Yes, I still trust the data. But with some important caveats.
Many of the people asking this question are worried about the possibility of political interference in the data-collection or analysis process. There is no evidence that is happening. Major economic reports on inflation, spending, trade and jobs have continued to come out as normal, even when the news has been potentially damaging to the president (such as when the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product shrank in the first quarter).
[snip]
But while there is no evidence of political interference, many economists and other experts have a different concern: the gradual erosion in the quality of government statistics.
[snip]
Economists consistently say they still believe federal economic statistics. But they worry the numbers will gradually become more volatile and prone to larger revisions. That is bad news for policymakers, investors and anyone else who depends on accurate, timely data to make decisions.
His opinion piece gift link. 06/03/2025.
And as Ben notes in the chart tweet thread; Federal government employment fell by 7k and is down 69k since January. That doesn’t reflect people who are on paid admin. leave — expect a bigger drop in the fall. State & local government employment rose, mostly in education. I don’t have a ready explanation for that.
Since those people fired by President Dippy and his Dippy friends are still getting checks, they cannot be considered unemployed; because they technically aren’t unemployed until September when their government paychecks stop.
President Ass is mid-rant again, and frankly, I’d rather gargle glass—but I’ll spare you the trauma and hit pause before this turns into a full-blown PSA for group therapy.
This is an open thread
