Coffee Talk with Tiff

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This Is An Open Thread

Morning, Peeps.

Boss is taking a couple of days break, so I will see what parts of the Shitshow pop up for you today and tomorrow.

It’s Thursday, June 2 …

Shitshow’s public schedule:

Thursday, July 2 2026
8:00 AM The President participates in Executive Time The White House Closed Press
9:00 AM In-Town Pool Call Time In-Town Pool
10:30 AM The President participates in a Policy Meeting Oval Office Closed Press
11:00 AM The President receives his Intelligence Briefing The White House Closed Press
1:30 PM The President participates in a Policy Meeting Oval Office Closed Press
2:30 PM The President participates in a Policy Meeting The White House Closed Press
4:00 PM The President participates in a Pre-Tape Interview Oval Office Closed Press
6:00 PM The President participates in a Policy Meeting Oval Office Closed Press

The Destroyer …

The Destroyer and his Demons …

The king of Lies and Stupidity

JFC. No, the US did not put “999 Billion Dollars” into NATO from 2014-2025. The US puts about $800 MILLION per year to NATO, which is less than 0.1% of US total military yearly spending, which is ~$850-900 Billion per year. Over the last 11 years, 2014-2025, the amount the US contributed to NATO was ~$8.11 billion. FFS.

Numbers (as much as they can be trusted now days) Day ..

Ben’s links:

Data: www.bls.gov/news.release…

Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07…

Charts! Starting with the big picture: Job growth slowed in June (and April/May were revised down), but the pickup in hiring this year remains intact. #NumbersDay

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— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman.bsky.social) July 2, 2026 at 8:32 AM

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent in June, but wage growth has been slowing. We'll get updated inflation data in a couple weeks, but it will likely show that wages continued to fall in real terms. (Though that could begin to reverse now that oil prices are coming down.)

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— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman.bsky.social) July 2, 2026 at 8:32 AM

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2 percent, and has now been at or under 4.5 percent for 56 straight months, the longest streak since the 1960s. (h/t @talsmith.bsky.social for flagging that one)

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— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman.bsky.social) July 2, 2026 at 8:32 AM

But the household survey was weak in general. The prime-age (25-54) employment rate dropped sharply. Really odd move that looks like a data quirk of some kind — it's the largest one-month drop since 2009, outside of the pandemic plunge.

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— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman.bsky.social) July 2, 2026 at 8:32 AM

Big e-pop drop was mostly among men. (No, I have no theories.)

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— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman.bsky.social) July 2, 2026 at 8:43 AM

Is A.I. killing white-collar jobs? Another month of data, another month of mixed signals. New story out from me today on why this is all so hard to measure: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/02/b…

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— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman.bsky.social) July 2, 2026 at 9:03 AM

This Is An Open Thread

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