It’s Wednesday…
Shitshow’s public schedule for…

Reuters (08/19/2026):
Crypto executives and representatives from industry trade groups are expected to attend the event, according to two people familiar with the matter. U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Mike Selig, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins and crypto advisor Patrick Witt are also expected to attend, according to media reports.
Reuters (08/19/2026):
Trump, who courted crypto cash on the campaign trail and whose family has profited from its own crypto endeavors, has prioritized reform for the sector in his second administration.Under his Republican leaders, the SEC ended a crackdown on the crypto industry, moving swiftly last year to rescind stringent crypto accounting guidance and dismiss lawsuits against Coinbase (COIN.O), opens new tab, Binance and others that the agency had alleged were flouting its rules.
[snip]
If finalized as drafted, the SEC’s proposal would allow a one-time exemption for crypto companies to issue up to $5 million in crypto tokens during a four-year period. It would also allow offerings of up to $75 million during each 12-month period, though issuers would still have to provide financial statements and meet regular reporting requirements.Under both exemptions, token issuers would still need to disclose certain information to investors.
Reuters (08/19/2026).
SEC.gov. (08/18/2026):
The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that it proposed new rules, titled “Regulation Crypto Assets,” that would create a clear and fit-for-purpose framework for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets. This proposal follows the Commission’s March 2026 interpretation clarifying how the federal securities laws apply to certain crypto assets and transactions involving crypto assets.
Together, these efforts introduce a comprehensive, tailored securities offering regime intended to address long-standing barriers to responsible capital formation and innovation within domestic crypto asset markets, while preserving the investor protections at the core of federal securities laws.
“As we continue the Commission’s efforts to provide clarity for crypto markets, and as Congress works to establish a lasting regulatory framework, Regulation Crypto Assets seeks to provide crypto asset entrepreneurs and market participants with clear pathways to raise capital under the federal securities laws,” said SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins. “In line with the Commission’s earlier interpretative guidance, this proposal would also allow for a safe harbor once an issuer has completed or permanently ceased all essential managerial efforts that it represented or promised it would take under an investment contract. Congress designed our securities laws to amplify – within specific guardrails – opportunities for entrepreneurs to innovate and build new products. Advancing this regulatory framework is a key element in our strategy to advance the rule books for the modern era and another step by the Commission to onshore innovation in crypto asset markets for generations to come.”
The proposed rules include two exemptions from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933 specifically tailored to certain investment contracts involving crypto assets. The first is a one-time exemption that would permit offerings of up to $5 million during a four-year period. The second exemption would permit offerings of up to $75 million during each 12-month period. Under both exemptions, issuers would be required to make certain principles-based narrative disclosures available to their investors. In addition, issuers under the second exemption would be required to provide financial statements and be subject to ongoing reporting requirements.
The proposed rules also include a conditional safe harbor from the term “investment contract” in the definitions of “security” in the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. If the conditions of that proposed safe harbor are satisfied, then a crypto asset would be deemed not to be subject to an investment contract for purposes of those definitions of “security.” In addition, the proposed rules would preempt state securities law registration and qualification requirements with respect to offers and sales of securities issued pursuant to an exemption in Regulation Crypto Assets, as well as certain secondary market transactions.
By building on the Commission’s interpretive guidance issued earlier this year, the proposed rules aim to bring greater clarity to when crypto assets fall within the federal securities laws, reduce incentives for issuers to create and operate offshore, and expand investment opportunities for U.S. investors with stronger, more consistent protections.
The public comment period will remain open for 60 days following the date of publication of the proposing release in the Federal Register.
SEC.gov. (08/18/2026):
Taco Tuesday Update…
On Tuesday night, Puddle announced a pause to 50 percent tariffs against Canada. He also announced that the Keystone XL Pipeline might be “awoken from the grave!”


AP News (03/17/2022):
CLAIM: The Keystone XL pipeline cancellation caused the current high gas prices.
AP’S ASSESSMENT: False. The Keystone XL crude oil pipeline wasn’t yet operational when it was canceled in 2021, and wasn’t expected to be running until 2023. Rather, experts say gas prices are high due to other factors such as the global spike in the cost of crude oil and increased demand after pandemic lockdowns ended.
[snip]
This persistent narrative has been spreading on social media since the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with false claims that all other U.S. oil pipelines have also been shut down. That is not the case. Experts tell The Associated Press that the Keystone XL pipeline cancellation isn’t affecting what’s happening in the oil market today. It was never operational when it was shut down, and was not slated to go into service until 2023, according to a press release from TC Energy, the company constructing the project.
[snip]
“Problem with the Keystone: It’s like saying a highway that was built but never completed is somehow making your commute to work way longer. You never got to ride on that highway. It was never opened. It was never relied on,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy.com, referring to the Keystone XL pipeline.
The Keystone XL pipeline was intended to be an expansion of the existing Keystone pipeline, which runs about 2,687 miles from Alberta to Illinois and Texas, and is operating. The pipeline extension was designed to carry up to 830,000 barrels of oil a day from Canada and North Dakota to refineries along the Gulf Coast. Biden revoked the permit to continue construction in January 2021, shortly after he took office.
The U.S. is still receiving oil from Canada through other means, like railways and other operational oil pipelines running in the U.S in addition to the original Keystone pipeline, said Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a professor and the chief energy officer at the University of Houston.
Even if the Keystone XL pipeline had been completed, the amount of oil it was designed to transport would have been a drop in the bucket for U.S. demand, experts noted. The U.S. used nearly 20 million barrels of oil a day last year, while global consumption of oil was near 100 million barrels. The pipeline would have contributed less than 1% to the world supply of oil, according to AP reporting.
AP News (03/17/2022).
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney offered a less unhinged statement on the short-term pause.
Over the last number of weeks, Canada has engaged in intensive discussions with the United States to address outstanding trade issues and deliver greater certainty and real benefits for Canadian businesses, workers, farmers, and families.
Substantial progress has been made, although there is important work still to be done. As this work is ongoing, the United States has agreed to postpone the implementation of its 50% tariff on a range of Canadian goods under Section 338 of the U.S. Tariff Act of 1930 until end of day, August 21.
While we continue this work, Canada remains focused on building a stronger, more independent, and more competitive economy at home.
PM.GC.CA. 08/18/2026.
Tuesday Primary Election: Wednesday’s Cope.
Before we begin, an author’s note:
I really don’t give a shit about winning primaries. The whole point of having primaries is to have a winner to face off in November. I only care because Puddle cares a lot about his endorsed candidates winning primaries.
For example:

Narrator: Luna did not have a primary challenger. She “won” her primary by default.
I will admit to taking joy in the fact that Rep. Cory Mills lost his primary election.
How it started:

How it’s going:
New York Times Election Results:


And because he can’t win unless someone he doesn’t like loses…


New York Times election results:

And One Last Thing…
Treasury.gov (08/19/2026): Treasury Announces Increased Sizes of Nominal Long-End Liquidity Support Buybacks Beginning September 9
The U.S. Department of the Treasury is increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities (the 10-year to 20-year sector and the 20-year to 30-year sector). The current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation.
This change is effective September 9, 2026 and will be in effect for the remainder of this refunding quarter (through November 4, 2026). Treasury will provide more information about future buyback sizes at the next Quarterly Refunding, scheduled for November 4, 2026.
This increase in buyback operation sizes reflects Treasury’s desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants, as evidenced by the significant volume of high-quality offers Treasury routinely receives in longer-dated buyback operations.
An updated tentative Treasury buyback schedule will be released at a later date.
Treasury.gov (08/19/2026).
The Kobeissi Letter posted a thread on this on Twitter:
It's official.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 19, 2026
On July 31st, we called for US government intervention as long-term borrowing costs hit 2008 levels.
Today, it happened. The US Treasury is DOUBLING buybacks to $4 billion per operation for "liquidity support."
What comes next? Let us explain.
(a thread) pic.twitter.com/cpC4uF2GmQ
On July 31st, the US 30Y Note Yield rose to 5.27%, the highest level since 2007.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 19, 2026
This officially marks a +450 basis point rally since the low seen in the 2020 pandemic.
Even as the Fed kept interest rates PAUSED at the July meeting, it did nothing.
Yields just keep climbing. pic.twitter.com/3LgPBkoSNm
But, why?
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 19, 2026
First, we began the year with market expectations for 3 rate CUTS in 2026.
This quickly shifted to 2 rate HIKES expected in 2026.
Expectations shifted for rates to be 125 basis points higher in a matter of months.
The 2025 global rate cut cycle came to a halt. pic.twitter.com/PXjWEp23XE
As the Iran War drove oil prices to $100+ per barrel, inflation expectations hit 5%+ by November.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 19, 2026
This left the Fed with no option but to halt rate cuts and begin considering rate hikes.
Month-over-month inflation in March and April came in at +0.9% and +0.6%, respectively. pic.twitter.com/8JBenRwksq
The rest of the tweet says: Month-over-month inflation in March and April came in at +0.9% and +0.6%, respectively.
Today, oil prices are well below their recent highs, but remain +55% above pre-war levels.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 19, 2026
Furthermore, Fed expectations have shifted toward a continued pause through the end of 2026.
Meanwhile, yields keep on pushing higher amid record deficit spending and inflation worries. pic.twitter.com/PG5vyN7NFU
Today's intervention by the US Treasury is notable.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 19, 2026
Treasury buybacks work by repurchasing older, less-liquid bonds, giving investors a steady buyer while new debt issuance continues.
The goal is to improve liquidity and ease upside in yields.
In other words, they blinked. pic.twitter.com/pROYVDdQhm
This also marks the second most notable bond market intervention by the Trump Administration.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 19, 2026
In April 2025, President Trump said he was watching the bond market when he decided to announce his "90-day tariff pause."
The 10Y Note Yield is now above the peak seen then. pic.twitter.com/8p3iEQqX2G
Take a look at the wording of today's press release.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 19, 2026
The doubling of buybacks to $4 billion per operation is in effect from Sept 9th through Nov 4th.
However, the treasury says it will provide "more information" about futures buybacks on Nov 4th.
We expect more intervention. pic.twitter.com/sQl5u8QPVf
The reality is that the US government needs lower interest rates more than anyone.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 19, 2026
Over the last 12 months, the US spent $1.4 trillion on interest alone.
By November 2028, this is expected to hit $1.7 trillion per year.
Borrowing costs have more than doubled since 2020. pic.twitter.com/Xj1Bh0pijA
For US debt servicing costs to simply stop going up, the US 5Y Yield needs to fall to 3.25%.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 19, 2026
This means a -110 point drop would simply keep us at $1.4 trillion in annual interest costs.
The bond market has arguably become the most important long-term fundamental to watch. pic.twitter.com/HJL2y7llB5
Lastly, mortgage rates are back on the rise and we expect new record lows in housing affordability.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 19, 2026
Without further intervention, we expect 7%+ mortgage rates.
The era of "free" money has come to an end.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. pic.twitter.com/OIywLTpRpI

