President Bolsonaro of Brazil refuses to officially acknowledge the election win of Joe Biden, but a public speech yesterday was used to issue a threat to the next United States President without directly using Biden’s name.
“We have just seen a great candidate for the head of state say that if I do not put out the fire in the Amazon, it will raise trade barriers against Brazil. And how can we deal with all this? Only diplomacy is not enough, isn’t it, Ernesto [ Araújo, Chancellor]? When you run out of saliva, you have to have gunpowder; otherwise, it doesn’t work,”
Jair Bolsonaro, translation via Folha International
“Ernesto” is Ernesto Araujo, Brazil’s Minister of Foreign Affairs who was with Bolsonaro for the speech.
The discussion of gunpowder in response to trade barriers refers to Biden’s statement during the first debate with Donald Trump, in which he called for “significant economic consequences” if Brazil did not address the issue of rainforest destruction in a way that Biden found acceptable.
Bolsonaro’s threat was a response to a conflict initiated by Joe Biden, but the suggestion that such a reaction might be physical in addition to diplomatic or economic is a significant escalation of rhetoric.
The back-and-forth does indicate that one of Trump’s rare successes, stronger diplomatic ties with the largest nation in South America, remains predicated on personal affection between the countries’ two leaders and that the opportunity to build substantial ties has been squandered. There were talks as early as 2018 toward establishing a military outpost in Brazil but the usual economic co-development which follows heightened relations has been slow to appear and the diplomatic access to allies which might normally have been useful for Brazil has been stunted as Trump has alienated other allies throughout the world. Absent strong positive bonds between the two nations, leadership change risks dramatically shifting the relationship between the United States and Brazil, and it appears that is in the process of happening.
