Oh, what a tangled web we weave
Marmion: A Tale of Flodden Field by Walter Scott
When first we practice to deceive!
Politics are a bitch. So is karma. And if you put the two together, let’s just say that the potential for a crap-storm of epic proportions increases exponentially.
In a previous editorial, I talked about how President Trump is being backed into a corner and that things are going to get bat-crap crazy as he lashes out in a final, desperate attempt at political survival.
As I see it, Trump’s success in weathering the storm hinges on to major fronts:
- Mueller
- The Mid-Term Elections
The clouds are most definitely forming on the horizon. In a kind of ironic cosmic justice, just as the perfect storm allowed for Trump to obtain the Presidency, another perfect storm is threatening to wipe him out. Storms are fickle that way.
Of course, like any actual storm, things can change very quickly. There are no guarantees.
Mueller
As the Mueller investigation continues, more and more key personnel from Trump’s orbit are finding themselves headed to prison. It would seem that the investigation is moving closer and closer to Trump and his family. As previously loyal associates of Trump “flip” under pressure threatening their own legal predicaments, it becomes increasingly likely that Trump will not fare well in the ultimate Mueller conclusions.
Now, to be clear, we have no idea what (or if any) substantial trouble will come of the Mueller investigation for Trump personally. Mueller could report that Trump has done nothing wrong, or he could report a laundry list of wrongdoing, both criminally and ethically, involving a variety of areas from financial transgressions to campaign related issues….or anything in between.
For the Mueller investigation to have any effect on whether impeachment proceedings commence will depend on the seriousness of any wrongdoing and the amount of evidence presented. We’ve seen the ability of the Republican Party to excuse and obfuscate away all of Trump’s jackassery thus far, so for anything to move them toward impeachment, it would have to be big. The only other factor on how the Mueller investigation plays into impeachment would be dependent on the other storm front – the mid-term elections.
The Mid-Term Elections
Essentially, I believe everything boils down to the results of the mid-term elections. One of three scenarios are likely to play out:
- The Republicans will hold the House and the Senate
- The Democrats will take the House in an election that’s not unlike historical mid-terms
- The Democrats will take the House with a massive, unprecedented “blue wave” that includes huge State level political changes. If they also take the Senate in this wave (unlikely), that would add to the ramifications.
If the Republicans manage to hold on to the House, no matter how slim the margins, they will claim TOTAL victory and vindication for supporting Trump. It will prove how great Trump is to actually have defied historical mid-term norms and they will claim it to be a mandate to continue the Trump agenda. If Sessions is still AG at that point, he will be immediately fired and replaced by someone who will see to ending the Mueller “witch hunt” if it has not be ended by then. Trump, the Republican Congress, the Trump supporting talking heads, and Trump supporters will double-down on everything. MAGAism will be put into overdrive. In this scenario, it’s hard for me to imagine the level of wrongdoing that Mueller would have to uncover to have any effect on Trump’s survival in office.
In the second scenario, where the Democrats take control of the House in a way that is not overwhelming (they gain enough to take over, but not more than is far removed from historical standards for mid-terms), I would think that the chances for impeachment proceedings might be 50-50, depending on the level of any wrongdoing that the Mueller report contains. However, unless the wrongdoing and evidence is highly compelling, it would be unlikely that the Republicans in the Senate would convict. In any case, we can expect that the Democrats will be holding many oversight investigations on a variety of topics in nearly all House Committees. The “Trump Agenda”, such as it is, would be dead.
If the third scenario occurs (a massive “blue wave” of an unprecedented nature), then “Katy bar the door”! In this situation, it may, ironically be the Republicans who would want impeachment more than the Democrats, simply to shed themselves of him prior to the 2020 election. The Democrats, on the other hand, may actually be reluctant to move forward with impeachment if they think he’ll actually be removed. It seems to me that in such a case, there would be nobody they’d rather face in the 2020 election. Don’t let anyone fool you that “they made that mistake in 2016 and it backfired”. Not so…with Hillary as the candidate, Donald Trump was still the best chance for her to win, even though he ended up eeking out a victory. She was that bad.
So, all that said, is impeachment imminent?
If I were a bettin’ man, I’d wager not…but I’m not a bettin’ man, which is good, because I’d have lost a ton of money over the past couple of years.
I am quite torn on which scenario I think would be ultimately best for the Republic. What are your thoughts?
