So, the race isn’t yet called… but it’s looking very positive for Biden right now, which is infuriating Trump voters. This is because Trump is ahead in a number of key states, and Biden is likely to win them in the end.
The problem for Trump’s voters is that the immediately reported numbers were generally the early voting tabulations, which were known to favor Biden. The numbers that came in through the day were the day’s voting numbers, which were known to favor Trump. The remaining ballots are mostly the mail ballots, which are known to favor Biden.
That means that any state which is currently being shown as won by Biden, even by a very slim margin, is very likely to remain in his column… whereas many states which are shown as being won by Trump are going to see a late flood of ballots which slant mostly toward Biden, meaning many of them aren’t safe.
This puts Nevada into a “likely win” category for Biden, Wisconsin into a “likely win”, Michigan into a “likely win”…. and stop, because that means Biden has earned 270 electoral votes and wins the contest.
It doesn’t really stop there, though. Pennsylvania is skewed very strongly toward Trump… but still has between two and three million ballots to count, most of them Biden votes. Biden’s chance to take PA remains high.
North Carolina is in the running because there’s only an 80K difference and there are mail ballots left to be counted. It is unlikely but plausible that Biden wins that state.
Georgia is in the running for a similar reason… but with them, it’s ballots from their most heavily Democrat county. They need to make up 190K, though, and that seems less likely.
So it looks very good for Biden right now. And, honestly, that’s been part of my confidence all along… Biden has had so many paths to victory, and Trump has had so few. I’d never expected Texas to flip unless FL, NC and GA all reported blowouts early and depressed the late in-person vote for Texas. On the other hand I’d also expected Ohio to likely go Biden, which would end the contest quickly.
That said, do I relish the notion of dangling hope before Trump only to watch it crumble? Yes, I do… It’s not right, but I admit it.
The big problem with such action is that it involves risks… there’s always the chance, however low, for sudden reversal. That’s why I’ve never been a fan of prolonging things… end the contest with a win, as soon as the chance arises. But if I’m stuck here, I’m going to enjoy it.
There will be problems, though.
First, we see that the “bubble” is thicker than expected… which is not amazing, but is a little depressing. The greatest indicator of this was when people refused to read so much as the summary of the Mueller Report, which would have clearly demonstrated that Barr and Trump were lying about it. I’d hoped that much of that was attributable to laziness rather than willful ignorance, but it is not so.
Second, there is no “lock” at this point. Sure, if you were to give odds the numbers would probably be around 90% for Biden, 10% for Trump (that sounds familiar) but 90% isn’t 100%. So there might not be reason for fear, but there’s ample reason for anxiety. That’s bothersome. I understand that it’s 2020, but I, too, wanted this over last night, and now it looks like we’re in for a short post-rollercoaster ride before the safety bar finally comes up and we’re allowed out of the car… and those tracks are still shaking and rickety.
Third, any of the people who were looking forward to starting trouble? That’s on hold… probably indefinitely. Rather than have a spark point that can trigger events, there are going to be a series of decisions and incidents which are going to leave the Trumpers angry… but they’ll be afraid to expose their craziness for fear of souring any appeals and challenges that are on their way. That’s all good… except that they will be looking for channels for their anger, and I can guarantee QAnon is going to get stronger because of the post-election rather than be cast into the toilet where it belongs.
Fourth, there will be lawsuits and challenges. This is what Trump does, and because it will have been close in multiple states and dependent on an odd voting mechanism, he is certain to prolong everything as long as he can, and he is almost certain to never actually concede. You remember the “Not My President” idiocy after Bush v. Gore? Expect it to return in force, this time with the sides reversed.
Associative to that, the division will continue. The opportunity for healing that a quick loss would have provided is gone. There’s a positive side for that, though; the close election will provide Biden with ammunition against the hard left side of his party and encourage him to continue with the centrist message that will have won the election. So it’s not all bad.