Ukraine/Russia Conflict Analysis Follow-Up

After my Facebook post the other day about the Russia/Ukraine war, I had a few people comment asking about what should be done to end the war, if not what Trump is doing? So, as a follow-up to that post, I submit the following musings…

Let’s first examine why we are here now.

Trump has stated that if he had won in 2020, then Putin would not have dared invade Ukraine. I believe that statement is total BS. I’s more likely that if Trump had won in 2020, not only would Putin have invaded Ukraine, but it probably would have been done with Trump’s blessing. Simply put, it’s obvious that he would not have put forth the effort to put together a broad coalition of countries from around the world to support Ukraine’s efforts to fight back against the invasion. Everyone had predicted that if Russia invaded Ukraine, they could prevail in a matter of a few weeks, if not days. Without the massive amount of help from the coalition led by the United States, that would probably have been true. Therefore, if Trump was in office when Putin made his move, it probably would have been the cake walk that everyone had predicted. And Trump would have sat back and admired Putin’s strategic genius.

“But Steve”, I hear many of you wondering, “if that’s true, why didn’t Putin invade Ukraine during Trump’s first term?”

Good question. Please follow along as I lay out how I believe it went down…

1. Russia/Putin helped Trump get elected in 2016. There is no dispute about this, even though Trump still lies about this and calls it the “Russia, Russia, Russia Hoax” and claims he had been fully exonerated by the Mueller investigation concerning any issue with the Russians during the 2016 campaign (he had not, has not, and never will be unless he signs his own Executive Order declaring it). Even the Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee confirmed that Russia worked very hard to help Trump get elected (with a lot of contact with people in and around Trump’s campaign) in their final report concerning the issue.
2. Trump then spent his entire first term pretty much praising Putin and covering for him. He also started floating the idea of leaving NATO and/or not living up to the terms of the alliance. Music to Putin’s ears. NATO is the biggest obstacle to Putin achieving his dreams of putting the USSR back together again (you know, his “Make Authoritarianism Great Again” plan). So, when Trump started disparaging NATO and hinted about leaving it, things couldn’t be working out any better if Putin had planned it.
3. During this time, Putin was increasingly building up his military, which might be the first reason that he didn’t invade Ukraine during Trump’s first term…the military was still in the building up phase and just wasn’t yet ready. You see, this isn’t the first time Russia has invaded a sovereign nation to increase its territory and control. No, we’ve been down this road before…in 2008, when Putin invaded Georgia in very similar circumstances and manner that he did in Ukraine. Russia was successful very quickly in that action, but they realized that they had a lot of weaknesses in their military, and they started rectifying that and building up to be prepared for their next adventure. Then, of course, there was the taking of Crimea in 2014, which could be considered a “test run” for the future full-scale invasion in 2022, both in military readiness as well as how the world responded to it.
4. I think a bigger reason that Putin waited was that Trump was still in the process of preparing the environment, which involved further alienating from NATO and our allies. We really have no idea what Putin and Trump discussed during some of their meetings because Trump made sure there were no note-takers in the room and thus there are no transcripts of the meetings with Putin, which goes against normal protocol, of course. Also, there were many more “gatekeepers” in the Trump administration in his first term, people who were pushing back on his most insane desires (which is why almost everyone who served in his first administration is fully against him and did not support him in the last election and warned us of his fascist core). He aimed to rectify that in his second term (and has proven that in spades already). So, the very best scenario for Putin would be to wait until after Trump won the 2020 election.
5. When Trump lost the 2020 election, it is no surprise that the U.S. Intelligence Community concluded that Russia/Putin worked very hard in their various efforts to influence the perception that the 2020 election was rigged. In other words, Putin helped Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election to keep him in power.
6. So, when that effort failed and Biden became President, Putin decided that he wasn’t going to wait any longer, and he invaded Ukraine, figuring that he’d move in and complete the job quickly, take the mild and temporary scorn from the world community like he did with Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014 and figured the scorn would fade away and he could then plot his next move.
7. Instead, with the help from the U.S. led coalition, Ukraine has been able to put forth a very effective fight that has decimated Russia’s military in a large way. Russia has lost 100’s of thousands of soldiers and massive amounts of weapons and equipment in its invasion of Ukraine over the past 3 years of war.

So, for anyone who says that our help is doing nothing, it’s simply not true. Our help, along with the rest of the coalition, has allowed Ukraine not only to sustain a fight against the invasion, but has nearly ended Putin’s hopes and dreams of restoring the glory and power of the USSR.

Ukraine’s sustained fighting on the battlefield, combined with the severe economic sanctions from most of the civilized world, had Russia nearly to its breaking point. The world had a very good chance of totally stopping Russia’s (Putin’s) aspirations of expanding its empire through military force and restoring the USSR’s former glory. Putin was on the ropes and the knockout punch could have been delivered which would have defeated one of the worlds’ biggest threats to peace and prosperity from one of the most dangerous dictators…all without the United States having to put a single pair of boots on the ground. There would have been no better way to invest the money that we have spent in support of Ukraine than to have accomplished that feat. The return on that investment, in peace and prosperity, would have been enormous for our kids and grandkids.

But Putin had one Hail Mary left in his arsenal…one final, very specific change on the world stage could turn things around for him.

Trump.

Putin knew that if he could just hold on long enough for the possibility of Trump getting back into the White House, his fortunes would change. He needed, more than ever, for Trump to win. For that entire period from 2022-2024, Trump made it clear that he was against the aid packages going to Ukraine. For Putin, he knew that Trump was his last hope for getting out of the mess he made. Trump had a similar problem…he knew that his only hope of getting out of all the criminal convictions he was facing and to avoid very probable prison sentences was to win the election. It only stands to logic and reason that they would both do whatever it took to make sure he won the election. Sure enough, they were at it again. Among other things, in 2024, the DOJ indicted two Russians for a scheme to influence the election where they funded a right-wing media company (Tenet Media) to have their influencers in America push Russian propaganda. This $10 million scheme pushed misinformation on a number of hot button issues that were being used by Trump to win the election. The two Russians remain at large somewhere in Russia, so were never prosecuted. Coincidentally, the Trump DOJ is now altering how and when they will enforce the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), which is the law that the Russian operatives were charged under.

This Russian propaganda effort that was distributed through many right-wing social media influencers that reached millions of Trump voters and potential voters, was used to push all of the misinformation and demagoguery about all of Trump’s major campaign issues like immigration, transgender issues, inflation, Ukraine, the supposed Biden crimes, etc. Yes, if you are on social media and you are a Trump supporter, you were almost certainly influenced by this Russian propaganda.

In any case, it’s now very clear that Trump and Putin have this symbiotic relationship together. They need each other to survive. Without the possibility of Trump returning to power, Putin almost certainly would have been defeated with continued coalition support, probably even a couple of years ago. We know that Trump had been in communication with Putin while he was out of office (although he’s being very shady and secretive about that for some reason). We also know that Elon Musk had regular communications with Putin and it’s probably not a coincidence that Elon jumped onto the Trump train when he did with an infusion of hundreds of millions of dollars to the campaign and, of course, the vast communication network of Twitter which was shifted to pretty much be a mouthpiece for Trump and his demagoguery. That is not all a coincidence.

So, to sum it up, the prospect of Trump winning the election is what kept Putin going in the war…he knew that all he had to do was hold out until then and his fortunes would change.

Lo and behold…

So, what have we seen happen since the Trump/Vance attack on Zelensky in the Oval Office meeting last week? A number of actions and statements from Trump would seem to corroborate views on what is outlined above.

1. It’s being reported that Trump in planning a major change to our commitment to NATO and that unless member nations meet his demands, he will no longer abide by the main point of the alliance…that all member nations will consider an attack on any one of them as an attack on all of them and that they will defend any nation attacked. This would defeat the entire purpose of NATO and, in effect, would greatly weaken it. He also stated that he doesn’t believe other nations would honor that part of the agreement if the United States was attacked, even though the only time that part of the agreement has been invoked was when all of the member nations did, indeed, come to the aid and defense of the United States after the 9/11 attack.
2. Not only has Trump demeaned Zelensky and insisted that their efforts to fight off Russia are in vain, he is now actively aiding Russia to that end. He has halted all support, both in money and weapons, that had previously been approved, to Ukraine. He has halted all intelligence sharing, which is vital to Ukraine’s success. And he has convinced a U.S. provider of satellite services to cut the service to Ukraine. All of these actions have debilitated Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and Russia is taking advantage of that by greatly increasing the attacks and bombings.
3. When asked about how his actions have aided and allowed Putin to further achieve its objectives, he said that he doesn’t blame Putin for taking advantage of it because “anyone would do that if they were in the same position”. So why did he do it? He said that he needed Ukraine and Zelensky to feel those harsh consequences if they didn’t give in to his demands, which essentially amounts to Ukraine surrendering, as far as we can understand Trump’s plan. So, once again, Trump is pretty much extorting Zelensky in an attempt to have him do his bidding…pretty much what he was impeached for in his first term.
4. Trump has stated that Putin is easier to work with in his efforts to make a peace deal than Zelensky is, concluding that Putin is more interested in peace than Zelensky is. He is essentially saying that the dictatorial country, Russia, that invaded the sovereign democratic country, Ukraine, for no justifiable reason, is the country that is more interested in peace. What an absurd statement. So Trump’s solution is to cutoff all support from Ukraine so that Russia can increase the bombing, destruction and killing against Ukraine until they “learn their lesson” and come to the table for “peace”. As for Putin being easier to deal with, of course he is…Trump’s plan gives Putin everything he wants and has Zelensky giving up everything.
5. Trump has called for Zelensky’s removal from the presidency of Ukraine and wants immediate elections to occur. First, the reason that elections have been paused is because they are currently in the middle of defending their entire existence and the country is torn apart by war. For good reason, their country’s constitution requires a pause in elections under these circumstances due to the impossibility of conducting free and fair elections, as is justifiably the case for many countries. This does not make Zelensky a “dictator” as Trump has accused. Second, this would play right into Putin’s hands (surprise, surprise). There is little that Putin would want more than to replace Zelensky with a pro-Russia president like they had before the uprising of the Ukrainians back in 2014 that ousted the pro-Russia president and ushered in more democracy. For Putin, the next best thing to taking over the entire country would be to have a leader in place that he can control.

In the end, it’s likely that Zelensky will have no choice but to accept Trump’s terms and surrender. Without the support of the U.S., it is unlikely that Ukraine can succeed in their efforts to dispel Putin. So Putin will keep all of the territory that he conquered (Trump says that he fought hard for it and lost many men in the process, so it would be unfair to take it away from him now), and then Ukraine will have elections that Putin will have enough influence on (and corruption in) to install a new, pro-Russia leader that he can control. And Trump will likely be all in on that.

And the world will be in a much more dangerous situation for it. And the United States will be further isolated from all of our allies, reducing our influence in the world and thus, our own national security.