Mitt Romney Supports RBG Replacement Vote

Mitt Romney has clarified his position on the RBG replacement vote with an official press statement this morning:

“My decision regarding a Supreme Court nomination is not the result of a subjective test of ‘fairness’ which, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. It is based on the immutable fairness of following the law, which in this case is the Constitution and precedent. The historical precedent of election year nominations is that the Senate generally does not confirm an opposing party’s nominee but does confirm a nominee of its own.
    
“The Constitution gives the President the power to nominate and the Senate the authority to provide advice and consent on Supreme Court nominees. Accordingly, I intend to follow the Constitution and precedent in considering the President’s nominee. If the nominee reaches the Senate floor, I intend to vote based upon their qualifications.”

This statement does not indicate that he intends to vote yes on the confirmation, but makes clear that he is open to confirmation.

This decision gives the Republicans the 51 votes required to allow a new Justice to be seated, provided they vote yes. The decision provides political cover to some Senators like Susan Collins who are in states where their positions are at risk. It also provides Romney with cover in his own state, where President Trump is ahead in polling despite a strong vein of unpopularity with the prominent Mormon population.

Trump’s current success in Utah polls demonstrates a strong wave of party-over-principle sentiment. Romney’s multi-day waffling on the issue suggests a fervent effort on his part to determine the attitudes of his constituency before committing to a position. The known Utah polling suggests he is following the views of his voters.

If a suitable replacement is nominated, this suggests that the Republicans are hoping to rekindle the late surge which was seen following the Kavanaugh fight. The strategy holds considerable pitfalls, not least of which is that most of the people who are fervent about the courts already migrated to the Trump fan base during the Kavanaugh nomination. Nevertheless, the decision by the Republicans to press ahead with this suggests their internal polling shows it as the source of a potential net gain.

Constitutionally, Romney is absolutely correct; unfortunately, it holds the potential to trigger an escalation response of court packing if the Democrats manage to take the House, the Senate and the White House in the upcoming election, as it presents the Republicans, who held up the nomination of Merrick Garland, in a very hypocritical light.

This is particularly likely because of the inclusion of wording which makes clear that it is a political decision, as the Constitutional job of the Senate was independent of party. By framing the response politically… indicated by the history of what types of nominees have been confirmed, showing a disparity in the response time to fulfilling their Constitutional duties… the Republicans have invited the Democrats to follow the technical guidance of the Constitution while being guided specifically by political interest.